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Global warming could take a break in the next decade thanks to a natural shift in ocean circulation, scientists say.

But earth's temperature will rise as previously expected over the longer term, according to a study published today in the journal Nature.

Climate scientists in Germany base the prediction on what they believe is an impending change in the Gulf Stream, the conveyor belt that transports warm surface water from the tropical Atlantic to the northern Atlantic and returns cold water southwards at depth.

The Gulf Stream will temporarily weaken over the next decade, in line with what has happened regularly in the past

This will lead to slightly cooler temperatures in the North Atlantic and in North America and Europe, and also help the temperatures in the tropical Pacific to remain stable

warming is unlikely to be a gradual trend, but a movement in stops and starts.

The main reason for this is that the oceans, the biggest store of heat, go through natural cycles of circulation.