By Peter
Bergen and Paul Cruickshank Research fellows at the Center
on Law and Security at the NYU School of Law. Bergen is also a senior
fellow at the New America Foundation in Washington, D.C.
The president’s
argument conveyed two important assumptions: first, that the threat of
jihadist terrorism to U.S. interests would have been greater without the
war in Iraq, and second, that the war is reducing the overall global pool
of terrorists. However, the White House has never cited any evidence for
either of these assumptions, and none appears to be publicly available.
The administration’s
own National Intelligence Estimate on "Trends in Global Terrorism: implications
for the United States," circulated within the government in April 2006
and partially declassified in October, states that "the Iraq War has become
the ‘cause celebre’ for jihadists...and is shaping a new generation of
terrorist leaders and operatives."